Bird Flu Center

A study relying on mathematical analysis has been brought forward to confirm that several cases of avian influenza on humans, detected in 2006 in Indonesia, were due to the disease spreading from person to person. A team of US researchers have developed a tool by which to quickly run tests on contagious disease cases of outbreak, so as to assess the risk of a world epidemic occurring.

Health officials around the world estimate that a world epidemic of influenza is to be expected in the future and the H5N1 bird flu virus is seen as one of the biggest dangers. Most cases of human infections so far have been attributed to direct contact with birds. However, a few cases have arisen suspicion that the virus might have been passed on from human to human.

The scientists analyzed to clusters. One of them was the case of eight family members dying in Sumatra last year, while the other consisted of eight people being infected in Turkey, out of which four have died. The researchers say there is enough statistical evidence to confirm human to human transmission of the bird flu virus in the case of the Sumatra cluster.

The elimination of the bird flu virus in poultry could be years away, a high ranking official of the World Health Organization said on Monday. The Director General of the WHO, Margaret Chan said that the virulence of the virus from the past three years has been impressive and that as long as the virus will continue to spread among birds, the threat of a worldwide epidemic among humans is still viable. The WHO has long given warnings that this virus, which first appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong, could be the source of a global pandemic, if it transforms into one which could be easily transmitted among humans. So far, basically all human cases have been due to close contact with diseased birds.

A World Health Organization official has made estimates that an effective vaccine against the bird flu virus could be available in a year’s time and even sooner if the world will have to face a pandemic. Marie-Paule Kieny presented this conclusion at the end of a large meeting of vaccine researchers and scientists from all around the world, that lasted four days. The 7th WHO Global Vaccine Research Forum gathered to review the progress made in the case of disease such as malaria, dengue fever, AIDS and bird flu.

Vical Inc, one of the main researchers into bird flu drugs and vaccines, has announced that a trial of its avian influenza DNA vaccine candidate has shown very promising results in protecting ferrets against a lethal strain of the highly pathogenic virus. Previous results, says the San Diego company, have also proven that the vaccine might be successful in making a body immune against the disease. The substance in question uses two different influenza virus proteins, as well as a specific H5 bird flu protein, with a special adjuvant being added for added efficiency. Human testing is expected to commence in the following weeks.

Researchers working at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have announced the discovery of a new compound that could ensure added protection against flu viruses, including the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus so feared nowadays. A protein molecule was discovered that effectively prohibits the influenza virus from attaching to and entering the cells of the body that hosts it, removing its ability to multiply and infect a higher number of cells. This new breakthrough in the field could lead the way to a completely new and efficient class of antiviral drugs and vaccines to help stop a possible epidemic of the disease. The new substance was tested on cells in culture, was well as mice and was found to provide complete protection against influenza infections, as well as being very effective in treating the animals in the first stages of such a disease. According to the scientists, vaccination with the newly discovered peptide provided a 100% protection against a number of strains of flu viruses, including the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus. On a market that is currently lacking highly effective antiviral drugs, and in the light of grim expectations that a pandemic of avian flu awaits us, this brings some hope to scientists worldwide.

During a regional WHO meeting concerning the Western Pacific nations, held in Auckland earlier this week, World Health Organization representatives have warned yet again that avian influenza is still the number one danger facing global health. The five day conference focused on issues concerning the western Pacific region and was an opportunity to discuss this, as well as other diseases that threaten humanity nowadays. Country delegates were urged to step up preparations for a bird flu outbreak, as a WHO official warned that no country can consider itself safe from the virus. The speed of modern transport makes it possible for an epidemic to reach remote nations very quickly. However, it was accounted that many countries to not have the financial resources to implement effective emergency plans, so international aid is to be taken into consideration in the global avian flu preparation effort.

The recent discovery of a number of mild bird flu cases from past months, that have only recently come in the spotlight, in Indonesia and South Korea, have prompted some to question the true mortality rate of the disease. It might be that the death rate is somewhat inflated by the fact that such mild cases are being missed. Experts however claim this is not the case, but that, at the same time, it is important to keep searching for those mild occurrences of the disease, in order to understand the real number of human infections and the symptoms that the patients experience. These kind of cases could also provide an early warning in the event of a shift in the nature of the virus, as a high number of mild bird flu could be a signal that the virus is adapting on its way to becoming a human flu strain.

During a press conference held in Singapore, David Nabarro, Senior System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza working for the UN, warned of the imminent danger that bird flu poses to world health and economy. He said a world animal and human flu pandemic is only a question of when, not if, and that world governments should take the warning seriously. A recent World Bank estimate concluded that such a severe pandemic could cost the global economy a percentage of 3.1 to 4.8 of the gross domestic product. This would translate in an amount of 1.25 to 2 trillion US dollars. In the last year, the disease has become a global concern, spreading rapidly from its origin in East Asia to countries from South Asia, Middle East, Europe and Africa. It is believed some 200 million birds died or were culled as a direct result. The greatest fear is that a further spread of the virus will eventually cause a mutation that will enable it to be easily passed on from person to person.

A World Bank analysis made on Tuesday warned of a possible world wide economic decline in the event of an avian influenza pandemic. If any of the current strains of the virus mutate into a form that is easily transmittable among humans, the extent of the decline could be massive. However, this is a worst case scenario. The magnitude of the decline, as well as the potential for recovery will greatly depend on the characteristics of the new strain of bird flu and on the level of preparedness that both the general public and the private sectors will have facing this epidemic. The World Bank’s Global Financial Stability Report was released just ahead of a week long International Monetary Fund, as well as the Bank’s annual meeting in Singapore. Experts say that preparation taking the form of a business continuity plan is the minimum that should be achieved in the wake of a possible pandemic. The International Monetary Fund has been encouraging countries to make preparations for a possible pandemic, organizing regional seminars that bring together different authorities.

Jackie Chan appears in a television advertisement sponsored by the United Nations, as an educational mean of preventing bird flu spread. The short film was shot in a Hong Kong school and the actors appears in the role of a UN ambassador urging children to stay away from sickened or dead birds, as avian flu is not something to mess around with. An eight year old is later reassured that playing with paper origami birds is alright. The film dialogue is in English, and as a spokesperson for the Hong Kong Unicef declares, that is the only version so far. It is not clear whether versions featuring dialogue in Thai, Vietnamese, Cambodian or Laotian will be produced, but the Unicef office in Bangkok has distributed the clip to several national, international and local televisions. Jackie Chan was chosen as he is a representative figure in Asia, seen as a role model for many.

International experts warn that the flu pandemic threat remains serious and efforts for developing and producing supplies and medicine need to be augmented, as the fatalities caused by bird flu have tripled this year.

60 people have fallen victim to the virus since the start of this year, while only 20 casualties were recorded in the same period of 2005. Professor Ian Jones of Reading University says there has never been a better moment to implement screening and preventive  measures. So far more than one half of the people infected with the virus have died.

More than 200 experts in different fields are attending these days the International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans, being held in Paris, where the latest strategies of dealing with the bird flu and the very likely pandemic will be discussed.

American expert Michael Osterholm believes the rise in bird flu cases reflects a constant pressure from the virus in both domestic and wild birds, and also warns that despite past flu pandemics this threat should not be taken lightly: “We’re trying to explain it as if we’ve already done the bench work and can tell you what’s going to happen. That’s just not the case.'’

Scientists from all arround the world are racing to find a new fastest way to produce a vaccine that will protect people in case that a pandemic will stat in the near future.

They afirmed that if a pandemic will come next year or in 2 years they ar enot prepared for mass production of the vaccine because right now htey don;t have a succesufull vaccine.

An adequate supply of vaccine for the lethal H5N1 flu virus will not be available for years, experts from seven countries, 44 universities and 60 biotechnology companies agreed at a recent conference sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences at Case Western Reserve University.

About 30 potential vaccines are being tested for safety and effectiveness in the United States and Europe, but the results have been disappointing, Stohr said.

The tests show that high doses of vaccine — and at least two shots — are needed to prevent infection, which means much greater quantities will be necessary, far more than can be produced by current technology.

There will be no breakthrough this year, Stohr said. “It will take six years to have enough vaccine for 20 percent of the world’s population. It may take eight to 10 years to solve the problem.”

Furthermore, the virus keeps changing, so a vaccine developed for one type of flu may not work against another variant. The H5N1 type that began in Asia already has split into two main branches.

“You can’t make cells divide any faster,” said Dr. Patrick Scannon, the chief scientist at Xoma Ltd., a biotechnology firm in Berkeley.

Researchers also are seeking novel methods to deliver vaccine to patients without the necessity of refrigeration and sterile needles, which can pose serious obstacles in many parts of the world.

“Theoretically, you could have a vaccine in a tomato,” said Alan Shaw, the president of VacInnate, a biotechnology company.

Eating the tomato would provide additional protection after the first inoculation, similar to a booster shot, he said.

The legal but offcourse the illegal trade in animals is a huge concern of the top wild bird experts because this can have a huge impact on spreading bird flu.

Even the bird flu has spread from Asia throught Africa and Europe and to Bahamas and Venezela until now hasn’t reached the United States 

The director of Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen Institute and chairman of BirdLife International, a global alliance of conservation organizations, ,Mr. Peter Johan Schei, said the United States and other governments should boost trade protections but not lessen attention to bird migration routes.

Schei and Leon Bennun, BirdLife International’s science policy director, agreed that illegally imported poultry and other animal products pose the most immediate risk.

Senior Bush administration officials have said they, too, worry about the bird flu arriving through the estimated $10 billion global trade in wild animals, pets and animal parts. Hundreds of federal agents from several government agencies are policing borders, ports, airports and other places.

Graham Wynne, head of Britain’s Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, said it’s not just a U.S. problem.

“Virtually every government around the world is putting too little emphasis on trade and poultry,” Wynne said. “You really can’t do too much vigilance on the movement of poultry products because that’s going to be the most likely route in.”

“Most of these outbreaks have not been directly related to the migration of birds,” said Lim Kim Keang, head of the Nature Society’s bird group in Singapore. He cited the daily smuggling of an estimated 4,500 chickens into Vietnam from China. The H5N1 virus has shown up in samples taken from some of the confiscated birds.